Monday, April 2, 2012

Nationals Preview

Washington Nationals
Pictured: Washington Nationals top prospect outfielder Bryce Harper.
The 2012 Washington Nationals start the season with pressure and expectations that have never been a part of the National’s franchise. After finishing the 2011 season one game under, 80-82, the Nationals are expecting to battle for the division crown in arguably the toughest division in the Major League, the NL East. Despite playing in the same division has powerhouses like the, Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins, and Atlanta Braves, the Nationals should be able to at least compete in division while developing the future of their organization.
Key Arrivals (according to BaseballProspectus.com): RHP Ryan Perry (from Detroit), RHP Jeff Fulchino (FA), 2B Andres Blanco (FA), OF Xavier Paul (FA), 3B Chad Tracy (FA), 3B Jarrett Hoffpauir (FA), RHP Waldis Joaquin (FA), SS Carlos Rivero (waivers), LHP Gio Gonzalez (from Oakland), RHP Robert Gilliam (from Oakland), OF/INF Mark DeRosa (FA), C James Skelton (FA), C Devan Ivany (FA), RHP Jimmy Barthmaier (FA), RHP Brad Lidge (FA), RHP Edwin Jackson (FA), 3B Mark Teahen (FA), OF Rick Ankiel (FA).
The Nationals added several key pieces in the offseason via trade and free agency. The Nationals especially bolstered their starting rotation with the trade for Gio Gonzalez and signing of Edwin Jackson. Gonzalez should slide immediately into the rotation as the number two starter after posting an impressive 3.12 era with nearly a strikeout per inning on the lowly Oakland Athletics. Jackson will most likely become either the third or fourth starter after starting multiple games for the Cardinals in their run to the World Series Championship. Although the Nationals concentrated on strengthening their starting rotation they did add other pieces that will have an impact. Ryan Perry and Brad Lidge should help the bullpen while Mark DeRosa provides depth on the bench.
Key Departures: RHP Collin Balester (to Detroit), LHP Tom Milone (to Oakland), C Derek Norris (to Oakland), RHP A.J. Cole (to Oakland), RHP Brad Peacock (to Oakland), RHP Todd Coffey (FA), RHP Livan Hernandez (FA). 
The Nationals should not be impacted by any of the departures. The trade for Gio Gonzalez did force the Nationals to part ways with some promising prospects: Tom Milone, Derek Norris, A.J. Cole, and Brad Peacock, but Gonzalez will surely help the team more than any of the prospects would this year.
Projected Rotation (per Nationals official site)
  1. Stephen Strasburg (1-1, 1.50 ERA, 0.71 WHIP)
  2. Gio Gonzalez (16-12, 3.12, 1.32)
  3. Jordan Zimmerman (8-11, 3.18, 1.15)
  4. Edwin Jackson (12-9, 3.79, 1.44)
  5. Chien-Ming Wang (4-3, 4.04, 1.28)
  6. John Lannan (10-13, 3.70, 1.46)
  7. Ross Detwiler (4-5, 3.00, 1.26)

Projected Starters
C: Wilson Ramos (.267/.334/.445)
1B: Adam LaRoche (.172/.288/.258)
2B: Danny Espinosa (.236/.323/.414)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (.289/.355/.443)
SS: Ian Desmond (.253/.298/.358)
LF: Michael Morse (.303/.360/.550)
CF: Roger Bernadina (.243/.301/.362)
RF: Jayson Werth (.232/.330/.389)
Bullpen
Closer: Drew Storen (R) (6-3, 43 SV, 3 HLD, 5 BLSV, 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP)
Relief Pitcher: Tyler Clippard

Tyler Clippard (R) (3-0, 38 HLD, 7 BLSV, 1.83, 0.84)
Brad Lidge (R) (0-2, 1 SV, 8 HLD, 1.40, 1.50)
Sean Burnett (L) (5-5, 4 SV, 15 HLD, 6 BLSV, 3.81, 1.32)
Henry Rodriguez (R) (3-3, 2 SV, 10 HLD, 3 BLSV, 3.56, 1.51)
Tom Gorzelanny (L) (4-6, 4 HLD, 1 BLSV, 4.03, 1.29)
Ryan Perry (R) (2-0, 4 HLD, 1 BLSV, 5.35, 1.62)
Ryan Mattheus (R) (2-2, 8 HLD, 2.81, 1.28)
Craig Stammen (R) (1-1, 1 HLD, 0.87, 0.68)
Atahualpa Severino (L) (1-0, 1 HLD, 3.86, 1.29)
Team Strengths:
The Starting rotation should be one of the strengths of the 2012 Washington Nationals. They get back their ace Stephen Strasburg who only started five games in the 2011 season after having Tommy John surgery in the 2010 season. Strasburg seems to be on the right track, “I felt good. My arm felt strong ... I think the big thing was going out and trying to pound the zone. Obviously, it has been a while throwing off-speed [pitches] to hitters and stuff. The biggest thing that I noticed was that it was very easy for me to go out there. Even in the third inning, I felt I could have gone a few more innings” after pitching in Spring Training (MLB.com). After Strasburg the team has tremendous depth. The aforementioned Gio Gonzalez should be the second starter giving the Nationals an impressive top of the rotation. Following Gonzalez will be either young, hard throwing Jordan Zimmerman or Edwin Jackson. The fifth and final spot in the rotation is still undecided. To show the depth of the rotation the fifth starter will either be John Lannan, last year’s number two, or Chien-Ming Wang, who is a former 19 game winner. Although the starting rotation should be the Nationals biggest asset, they do posses other strengths. The Nationals have plenty of power in the middle of their lineup with Sluggers like: Ryan Zimmermann, Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse, and Jayson Werth. The Nationals also have a young but reliable closer, Drew Storen, who had an impressive 43 saves last year.
Team Weaknesses:
Although the Nationals have depth throughout their team they do have some weaknesses. Probably the most glaring weakness is not directly associated with a player or position but instead with the whole team. The Nationals are young and to some extent an inexperienced team. With the risen expectations this year, it is difficult to know how the young players will react to the now apparent pressure. Besides being a young team, there is only one other weakness. The Nationals sluggers may find it hard knocking runs in when there are no runners on base. Last year only Michael Morse had a batting average above 300 and no player had an on base percentage of over 400. They must find a way to get runners on base for Zimmerman, Werth, and Morse.
Predictions:
Although the Nationals play in an extremely difficult division, it is hard to dismiss them as being a contender. The Nationals will overcome their inexperience and finish this year with a record of 97-65 winning the NL East. The Nationals will enter the postseason but will quickly be ousted from the playoffs in the first round. Also Bryce Harper, the National’s prized prospect, will have an impact on the team this year.

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